Barcelona Faces Severe Heatwaves by Mid-Century, Study Warns
A recent study, the first of its kind to combine the PGW approach with high-resolution urban simulations in Barcelona, paints a concerning picture of the city's future heatwaves. By mid-century, temperatures could rise by around 2.5°C, with a more pronounced increase of 4.2°C expected by late century. These heatwaves could be even more intense, with maximum temperatures increasing by an average of 4°C and minimums around 3.5°C by the late century.
The study, conducted on heatwave episodes in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area over the last 30 years, projects these phenomena into the mid and late century using high-resolution simulations. It reveals that heatwaves could intensify significantly, with temperature increases of up to 6°C and a general reduction in relative humidity in cities by the end of this century. Maximum temperatures could exceed 45°C in urban areas of the BMA's interior and exceed 42°C in the interior of Barcelona city by the late century.
The study also indicates that the geopotential height at 500 hPa could increase by up to 100 meters, suggesting a more stable atmosphere prone to persistent heatwaves. Relative humidity is expected to decrease by an average of 6% for maximum values and 5.3% for minimum values, with reduction peaks of up to 16% in the Garraf area. These changes could have severe consequences, as the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona shows clear signs of climate vulnerability, with mortality increases of up to 27% observed during recent heatwaves.
The study underscores the urgent need for climate action, particularly in urban areas like Barcelona. With over half of the world's population living in cities, understanding and mitigating future extreme phenomena like heatwaves is crucial. The Barcelona Metropolitan Area, with its clear signs of climate vulnerability, must prepare for and adapt to these changing conditions.
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